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    • 专利摘要:
    The present invention relates to a computer system (100) for predicting an erased fluid consumption comprising: - a consumption data collection module (10) (D_CONSi, i∈ [1, n]) comprising information relating to a actual fluid consumption of a plurality of consumers (CONSi, i∈ [1, n]) during a learning phase (J), - a processing circuit (20) for aggregating the collected consumption data (D_CONSi in groups (Gj, j∈ [1, m]) as a function of at least one determined descriptive variable associated with each consumer (CONSi) and contained in the consumption data (D_CONSi), - a processor (30) for determining from the aggregated consumption data (D_CONSi) an overall load curve (Cgj) for each group (Gj), - a calculator (40) for calculating a model for extracting a load curve (Ccj), called heating, from of each global load curve (Cgj) and meteorological data (D_METj), and - a predictor (50) for calculating a prediction of an erased fluid consumption for each group (Gj) during an upcoming erase phase (J + 1).
    公开号:FR3014613A1
    申请号:FR1362407
    申请日:2013-12-11
    公开日:2015-06-12
    发明作者:Philippe Charpentier；Isabelle Debost
    申请人:Electricite de France SA；
    IPC主号:
    专利说明:

    [0001] PREVENTION OF ERASED FLUID CONSUMPTION Technical Field The subject of the present invention relates to the field of fluid consumption management, and more particularly to the reduction of fluid consumption. One of the objectives of the present invention is to accurately predict at a given moment the amount of fluid erased for an erasure phase to come. The present invention thus has many advantageous applications 10 especially for energy operators by allowing them to optimally manage their fluid production and to ensure a balance between fluid supply and demand, especially during peak consumption. The present invention also finds other advantageous applications in particular for the adjustment operators by enabling them to quantify with precision the consumption of fluid erased during an erasure period, this for example in order to contractualize an erasure offer . By fluid within the meaning of the present invention, it is to be understood here throughout the present description that any energy source, such as for example electricity, water, or gas or fuel oil, likely to be consumed by equipment of an installation (domestic or industrial) in particular for its operation. STATE OF THE ART Controlling the consumption of fluids has become a daily and growing challenge for both individuals and industry: the reasons for controlling this consumption are as much economic (high financial costs) as ecological order (pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, management of natural resources). In order to control this consumption, energy operators have been implementing energy efficiency policies for several years aimed at reducing fluid consumption, especially during periods of peak consumption.
    [0002] In individuals, this peak of consumption occurs most often in the winter between 18 and 20 hours; this is explained in particular by the weather conditions at this time of the year and the traditional domestic uses. This peak consumption comes in particular from the consumption of fluid called for heating. It is mainly a consumption of electrical energy. Generally, this peak of consumption of energy fluid is satisfied by means of "fast" production that are often polluting: for example, for the production of electrical energy, combustion turbines are used.
    [0003] In the field of electrical energy, we have known for several decades the introduction of tariff incentives to reduce energy consumption during peak consumption. Most electricity providers have indeed set specific rates for so-called "hollow" hours and so-called "full" hours: the price of electricity is thus increased over a determined time period in order to reduce or postpone the request. Other solutions are now put in place to better control this consumption; energy operators have indeed an increased policy in Active Demand Management, also known by the acronym "GAD"; this management aims to control and reduce the consumption of energy fluid. This type of management works in both the residential and industrial markets. Among these solutions, one of them is to directly control the electrical load of certain equipment.
    [0004] For example, certain electrical uses such as heating may be voluntarily interrupted at times of high demand, for example for a period of two hours (preferably between 18 and 20 hours). During these hours of electricity consumption reduction, it is said that the customer "disappears", the customer having subscribed to such an erasing service (often with preferential rates in return).
    [0005] These means of control of the load are generally operated only a few days per year (15 to 20 days) during the winter. This significantly reduces the fluid consumption and the final bill of the consumer.
    [0006] It has now become decisive and strategic to be able to predict, in advance and with precision, this quantity of erased fluid, also called "erasure"; this amount of erased fluid corresponds here to the difference between the amount of fluid actually consumed and the amount of fluid that would have been consumed if the customer had not erased (this theoretical amount is also called "baseline").
    [0007] This prediction of the amount of fluid erased, or erasure, is all the more strategic since it is now possible to value this erasure by selling this energy, for example to an industrialist to make his factory run or to another energy operator (eg foreign): there are indeed operators who contractually commit to sell to another operator during a peak a quantity of energy not consumed for example every half hour over a predetermined period of time. This type of practice allows an operator to cope with the demand, which helps to regulate the production of fluid. Predicting in advance this consumption of erased fluid makes it possible to quantify a quantity of energy fluid for example to indicate this quantity in a sales contract. Thus, in the contract, the operator may undertake to supply a quantity of energy fluid for a given period. We understand that it is therefore decisive to be able to make such a forecast with great precision in order to respect this contractual commitment.
    [0008] The document EP 2 047 577 relates to the erasure and proposes a solution for regulating the energy consumption. More particularly, this document describes a method for managing and modulating in real time the power consumption of a set of consumers. In this document, to know the consumption in real time, the method provides for the installation of an electrical control unit at each consumer to send in "push" mode a periodic record of consumption measurements to a central server that collects this information. and establishes an individual estimate of consumption. However, the applicant submits that nothing in this document precisely describes the method used to make such an estimate of the consumption of erased fluid. According to the Applicant, there is currently no state-of-the-art method of performing to predict, in advance and accurately, the consumption of erased fluid. SUMMARY AND OBJECT OF THE PRESENT INVENTION The present invention aims at improving the situation described above. Thus, the present invention provides a statistical approach for effectively predicting the effected fluid consumption for an upcoming erasure phase. More particularly, the object of the present invention relates to a method for predicting an erased fluid consumption which is implemented by computer means; the prediction method firstly comprises a collection of consumption data. Advantageously, the consumption data comprise information relating to a real consumption of fluid of a plurality of consumers during a learning phase.
    [0009] Following this collection, the method according to the present invention comprises an aggregation of consumption data collected in groups. Preferably, this aggregation by groups is carried out in particular according to one or more specific descriptive variables; this or these variables are associated with each consumer and are contained in the consumption data.
    [0010] Preferably, these descriptive variables are selected from at least one of the following variables: the region, the type and the housing area, the number of people for housing or the heating mode. Of course, those skilled in the art will understand here that other descriptive variables may also be considered in the context of the present invention.
    [0011] Advantageously, the method according to the present invention also comprises a determination, from the aggregated consumption data, of an overall load curve for each group. This overall load curve is the fluid consumption curve for each group during the learning phase. Advantageously, the method according to the present invention comprises a calculation of a model for extracting a charge curve, called the heating load curve. This heating load curve is here the curve relating to the fluid consumption for the heating of each of the groups. Preferably, the calculation of this extraction model is made from each global load curve and meteorological data; preferably, this meteorological data contains at least one meteorological information for each group during the learning phase. Advantageously, the method according to the present invention comprises a prediction of an erased fluid consumption for each group for an erasure phase to come. According to the present invention, this prediction is calculated according to each heating load curve estimated by the extraction model and a history of consumption data. Thanks to this succession of technical steps, characteristic of the present invention, it is possible to construct, during a learning phase, a model 20 for extracting a heating load curve from a global load curve. , to then predict at a given time, on the basis of a history of consumption data, an erased fluid consumption for a future erasure phase. Thus, according to the results obtained by the Applicant, the present invention makes it possible to accurately predict an effected fluid consumption on a set of consumers; this prediction makes it possible, for example, to manage the energy production plan in advance and / or to sell this non-consumed energy on the adjustment market. Advantageously, the method according to the present invention comprises, prior to the aggregation of the consumption data, a pretreatment.
    [0012] During this pretreatment, a correction of the consumption data for at least one consumer is performed when consumption data of said at least one consumer are missing. This correction makes it possible to have a continuous consumption data sequence on the learning phase, which makes it possible to minimize the errors during the prediction. This preliminary correction can take several forms. For example, when, for the same consumer, consumption data are missing over a period less than or equal to a predetermined threshold period, then the missing consumption data are estimated, during the correction, by interpolation with the other consumption data. collected for that same consumer. On the other hand, when, for the same consumer, consumption data are missing over a period greater than a predetermined threshold period, then the missing consumption data are estimated, during the correction, by searching in a consumption data history for a consumption period. a sequence of consumption data minimizing the distance with the collected consumption data. These two complementary approaches to correct the missing data are satisfactory: they minimize correction errors. Preferably, the threshold period determined is a period of 3 hours. Of course, those skilled in the art understand here that other periods can also be envisaged within the scope of the present invention. It is desirable that the aggregate aggregate load curves obtained with the consumption data are of good quality. To do this, the consumption data must be synchronous with each other. Thus, according to an advantageous variant, the fluid consumption data comprise temporal information relating to the instant at which the consumption of fluid by the consumer has been achieved. According to this variant, the pretreatment advantageously comprises a synchronization of the data when these are desynchronized.
    [0013] Preferably, this synchronization of the consumption data is performed by interpolation. Advantageously, the meteorological data contain information relating to the outside temperature for each consumer during the learning phase. In order for these meteorological data to be the most representative of the group, the method comprises, for each group, the calculation of an average of the temperatures contained in the meteorological data weighted by the called power of the consumers of the group.
    [0014] Advantageously, the calculation of the extraction model includes a modeling of a consumption power called for heating by the same group at a time t, by a linear regression of LASSO type carried out according to the following formula: (2 Pfl h = 23 odh V 7, - Z_a C t-hflhd + hl-Tnt132d5h rh = 0 i = 25 jaidh i = 0 (2) = arg min in which: - the variable dh corresponds to the half-hourly step whose power is sought to be modeled at time t with dh iE [1,48] - P, is the global power called for a group at a time t;, -) 0dh - p is the constant associated with the model; dh - h_r i correspond to the parameters associated with the temperature variables Tct_h; 20dh - fl2, corresponds to the parameter associated with the normal temperature; - 2 is a penalty constraint; and _ ijdh _ ) is the vector of the estimates of the parameters of the extraction model. Advantageously, the prediction of the fluid consumption erased at a time t for a forecast horizon k is estimated according to the following formula: xAdh in which: X represents a matrix of explanatory variables of the forecasting model; and _ -2 'dh U 1 _ r) corresponds to the vector of the estimates of the parameters of the prediction model. It is still possible to optimize the process and reduce costs.
    [0015] To do this, prior to the collection of consumption data, the method includes consumer stratification in which the inter-stratum variance is maximized and the intra-stratum variance is minimized. Preferably, this stratification is carried out in particular on the basis of the descriptive variables above.
    [0016] This stratification makes it possible to avoid the installation of a backup device for each of the consumers. Correlatively, the subject of the present invention relates to a computer program which includes instructions adapted to the execution of the steps of the method as described above, this in particular when said computer program is executed by a computer or at least one processor. Such a computer program can use any programming language, and be in the form of a source code, an object code, or an intermediate code between a source code and an object code, such as in a partially compiled form, or in any other desirable form.
    [0017] Similarly, the subject of the present invention relates to a computer-readable or processor-readable recording medium on which is recorded a computer program comprising instructions for the execution of the steps of the method as described below. above. On the one hand, the recording medium can be any entity or device capable of storing the program. For example, the medium may comprise storage means, such as a ROM, for example a CD-ROM or a microelectronic circuit-type ROM, or a magnetic recording means, for example a diskette of the type " floppy disc "or a hard drive.
    [0018] On the other hand, this recording medium can also be a transmissible medium such as an electrical or optical signal, such a signal can be conveyed via an electric or optical cable, by conventional radio or radio or by self-directed laser beam or by other ways. The computer program according to the invention can in particular be downloaded to an Internet type network. Alternatively, the recording medium may be an integrated circuit in which the computer program is incorporated, the integrated circuit being adapted to execute or to be used in the execution of the method in question. The subject of the present invention also relates to a computer system for predicting a consumption of erased fluid. More particularly, the computer system comprises: a collection module configured to collect consumption data comprising information relating to an actual consumption of fluid of a plurality of consumers during a learning phase; a processing circuit configured to aggregating the collected consumption data in groups according to at least one determined descriptive variable associated with each consumer and contained in the consumption data, - a processor configured to determine from the aggregated consumption data an overall load curve for each group, - a computer configured to calculate a model of extraction of a load curve, called heating, relating to the overall consumption of fluid for heating each of the groups from each global load curve and meteorological data containing at least one information relating to the condition metric for each group during said learning phase, and - a predictor configured to calculate a prediction of an erased fluid consumption for each group during an upcoming erasure phase as a function of each heating load curve estimated by the extraction model and a history of consumption data. Advantageously, the computer system according to the present invention also comprises computer means that are specifically configured for carrying out the steps of the method as described above.
    [0019] Thus, by its various functional and structural aspects described above, the present invention makes it possible to predict in advance and accurately the amount of fluid consumption erased during an erasure phase. Brief description of the appended figures Other features and advantages of the present invention will emerge from the description below, with reference to Figures 1 and 5 attached which illustrate an embodiment having no limiting character and in which: - Figure 1 is a schematic view of a computer system according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 2 represents a graph illustrating the evolution of the power consumed as a function of the outside temperature; FIG. 3 represents a graph illustrating the evolution of the temperature, of a heating curve and of an overall load curve as a function of time; FIG. 4 represents a graph illustrating the comparison between the actual erased power and the prediction of an erased power; and FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating the remote learning method according to an advantageous exemplary embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF ONE EMBODIMENT OF THE INVENTION A method for predicting an erased fluid consumption, according to an advantageous embodiment, as well as the associated computer system, will now be described in the following with reference in conjunction with Figures 1 to 5. The mechanism of erasure has already been described previously. In particular, it has been mentioned that in order that an erased power be taken into account in the production plan of an energy operator or sold on the adjustment market, it is desirable to provide as precisely as possible this erasure, this effacement corresponding to a quantity of energy fluid not consumed. In the residential sector, the largest erasure field is electric heating; the example described here therefore relates to the electrical consumption related to the operation of the electric heater (s) for a home, also called a consumer. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that application of the present invention to other fluids and / or other types of consumption may be contemplated. As the heating of the customers is controlled in ON / OFF, to foresee the erasure, it is necessary to take into account the history of the load curve of the erased use (the heating). Classically, in order to predict this erasure, it is necessary to collect the heating curve of each customer, to process and aggregate all these curves and finally to predict on a given horizon the heating power required to determine the erasing potential at this horizon. .
    [0020] This approach is expensive. It requires the instrumentation of the electric heating system of each home, which involves the deployment of specific equipment and the intervention of a specialized electrician. In addition, this approach requires a highly evolved computer system to process the entire chain of data acquisition within a reasonable time.
    [0021] In other words, predicting this erasure is expensive. The present invention overcomes these problems and offers a powerful alternative solution that saves hardware, installation costs and IT. One of the objectives of the present invention is to reduce the average cost of the solution per customer. Thus, in the example described here, and as illustrated in FIG. 1, the computer system 100 according to the present invention comprises a collection module 10 which is configured to collect, during a collection step S1, consumption data D CONS ' ic [1, n] which are sent by the relief devices DR1, DR 'associated with each electric meter installed in each consumer CONS' ic [1, n]. In the example described here, these data D CONS 'ic [1, n] comprise in particular information relating to a real consumption of electricity of a plurality of consumers CONS, ic [1, n] during a learning phase J .
    [0022] In the example described here, each of these data also includes temporal information relating to the time at which the consumption of electricity by the consumer has been achieved. We talk about timestamping. In the example described here, this collection S1 is performed with a collection step of 30 minutes, which corresponds to a half-hourly step. Of course, one skilled in the art will understand here that it is possible to provide a collection of data with another collection step, for example a step of 20, 15 or 10 minutes. The step of 30 minutes allows to obtain results of good quality, this step corresponding to the official step of the adjustment mechanism. Following this collection S 1, the consumption data can undergo S2 pretreatment to improve the operation that follows. In the example described here, this pretreatment comprises firstly a synchronization S2_1 consumption data D CONS, when they are out of sync. In the example described here, it is desirable for the consumption data D CONS to be synchronized and arrive preferably every 30 minutes starting at midnight. In the example described here, if the consumption data D CONS are desynchronized by less than 1 minute, only the time stamp of these data is modified. For example, a consumption data D CONS, for a consumer i having a time stamp corresponding to "00h10m3Os" is reduced to "00h10m0Os" after synchronization. If alternately the consumption data D CONS are desynchronized by more than 1 minute, the data is then interpolated to reset the time stamp. In the example described here, once synchronized, the data can be corrected if necessary. Thus, the pretreatment also comprises a correction S2 2 of the data.
    [0023] More particularly, when consumption data D CONS, of at least one consumer CONS, are missing, then these data are corrected or rather completed. In the example described here, when, for the same consumer CONS 'consumption data D CONS, are missing over a period less than or equal to a threshold period equal to for example 3 hours, then the missing consumption data are estimated by interpolation with other consumption data collected for that same consumer. In other words, when a sequence of missing data is less than 3 hours, then the missing consumption data is interpolated with the other consumption data collected. In the example described here, if, on the other hand, the missing data sequence is greater than 3 hours, then the missing consumption data is estimated by searching in a consumption data history a data sequence minimizing the distance with the consumption data. collected. In other words, in the example described here, if this sequence of missing data is greater than 3 hours (and less than 24 hours), a copy of form is made. The data sequence is transformed into a power curve. The curve is then cut daily. In this example, if the original curve has 200 days, 200 curves result. To correct the missing sequence of a daily curve, one searches among the days without missing values the curve whose distance is minimal on the not missing time steps with the curve including a missing sequence.
    [0024] One copies the powers of the selected curve on the missing points recaled on the energy of the non-missing points. Thus, thanks to these different pretreatments carried out by a preprocessing circuit 60 configured for this purpose, there is a sequence of complete consumption data.
    [0025] Once these pre-treatments have been carried out, the consumption data D CONS are aggregated in groups, G3, jE [1, m]. Here, we take the example of m groups, where m is strictly less than or equal to n. This aggregation S3 is performed by a processing circuit 20 as a function of a plurality of specific descriptive variables associated with each consumer CONS. This variable can be initially contained in the consumption data D CONS. In the example described here, these descriptive variables include information relating for example to the region, the type of housing, the heating means, the number of persons per dwelling, etc. These descriptive variables can also be retrieved during a previously performed survey, and stored in a system database 100 (not shown here). Those skilled in the art will understand here that this aggregation of consumption data is performed according to the manner in which the operator wishes to manage his client portfolio. Following this aggregation S3, during a determination step S4, the average global load curve Cgi for each group G is calculated from consumer consumption data belonging to said group. Each group G therefore corresponds to an average global load curve Cgi. It is possible that these consumption data are biased, this is particularly the case when for example the learning period includes one or more erasure period. In this case, past erasures and associated load deflates (also known as "rebound") may bias the history of the overall load curve. This may change the extracted heating load curve and alter the prediction of the erasable power potential. It may therefore be necessary to correct the bias of the variables resulting from the deletion and the load transfer. For this, it is optionally provided to estimate the "baseline" during erasure and up to 3 hours after erasure.
    [0026] This is possible, in particular through the implementation of the estimation method described in patent application FR 13 54694 belonging to the applicant. Thus, thanks to the application of this estimation method, the biased powers of the data history will be replaced by those of the "baseline".
    [0027] Then, in the example described here, meteorological data D METJ is retrieved, for example via the collection module 10 or by other means. These data contain information relating to the meteorological conditions for each group Gj during said learning phase J. More particularly, according to one variant, these meteorological data are retrieved from the weather stations SMi to SMJ directly by the relief devices DRi to DR '. In the example described here and illustrated in FIG. 1, the relief devices DR 1, DR 2 and DR 3 associated respectively with the consumers CONS 1, CONS 2 and CONS 3 retrieve from the weather station SM 1 the meteorological data D MET 1 containing information such as by example the outdoor temperature Tel. In the same way, in the example described here, the polling devices and DR 'associated respectively with consumers CONS'_i and CONS' recover from the weather station SM., The meteorological data D MET., Containing information such as by example the outside temperature Tem. This is of course an example among other examples. Alternatively, these data, from weather stations SMi to SM., Associated with each consumer or each group of consumers, can be retrieved directly by the collection module 10. In this case, the weather stations are geolocated as the consumers; thus, to make the association between the consumer and the meteorological data, the closest weather station available to a consumer is sought. For each group, an average of the curves of the weather stations weighted by the power demand of the customers belonging to the group is calculated so that the meteorological data is representative of the group. An overall load curve Cgj for each group G is then determined by a processor 30 of the system 100, in a determination step S4.
    [0028] This overall load curve Cgj represents the electricity consumption of each group Gj during the learning phase. In the example described here, the present invention seeks to extract the charge curve Ccj, called heating, relating to the electricity consumption for the heating of each of the groups G, from each global load curve Cgj and the data D METJ; j is here a positive integer between 1 and m. This extraction requires the best modeling of the impact of temperature on the level of the overall load curve at each moment. This is done by a calculator 40 during a calculation step S5 during which an extraction model 10 is calculated. To properly extract this heating load curve, the following operations have been observed: The variation of the heating load curve depends on the outside temperature. However, the inertia of the buildings means that it is not the instantaneous gross external temperature which impacts the level of the load curve, but the whole of the past outside temperatures. Indeed, an outside temperature at a given moment takes a certain amount of time to "enter" into the building. In addition, once entered, this outside temperature impacts the load curve for a certain period; the impact of the outside temperature on this curve then reduces as and when. It has also been observed by the Applicant that there is a substantial connection between the outside temperature and the power demand. This link is linear when the temperature is below a threshold temperature. When the outside temperature is high then the consumers do not use their heating much or the outside temperature has no more impact on the overall load curve. The so-called heating power is therefore a linear combination of past temperatures if they are below the threshold temperature Ts. This phenomenon is illustrated in FIG.
    [0029] In addition, consumers do not use their heating in the same way over time: for example, some consumers do not use their heating when they are away or when they sleep. In addition, external inputs (such as the sun) are different depending on the time of day. Therefore, it is about having a model by no time per day. If the load curve is read every half hour then 48 extraction models must be built: one model for each time step. It has also been noted that certain uses do not depend on temperature, such as lighting, but are nevertheless correlated with the outside temperature. To avoid them being taken into account in the extraction of the heating curve, the normal temperature variable must be introduced in order to model so-called "seasonal" uses. In addition, to reflect the inertia of the buildings, raw temperatures are used instead of the smoothed temperatures. However, if the consumer portfolio fluctuates in terms of perimeter or if some consumers engage work in their home, the temperature smoothing is no longer suitable. The present invention therefore provides for automatic adaptation of perimeter changes. The underlying concept consists in estimating the impact of each hourly temperature of the last 48 hours on the power demand of the dwelling at a given moment when these temperatures are below the heating threshold temperature. The delayed temperatures being numerous and strongly correlated with each other, the extraction model is based on a so-called LASSO criterion. The advantage of the LASSO regression is that many variables can be taken into account in the model with a certain correlation between them, which is not possible with conventional linear regression (the estimation of the parameters becomes unstable).
    [0030] Moreover, the selection of variables of a linear regression is a discrete process, the variable is either retained or eliminated. The LASSO regression is a more continuous selection and allows to keep more information. In the example described here, it is therefore desirable to determine the threshold temperature mentioned below and illustrated in FIG. 2. For each time step and for each temperature delay, this temperature is calculated. Those skilled in the art will understand here that this threshold temperature is the temperature below which the electric heating is started. As illustrated in FIG. 2, the impact of the temperature on the electrical consumption is significant only below a certain temperature, which is this threshold temperature. To detect this temperature for a delayed temperature variable, the present invention provides for regressing the called power at a time t on the temperature in a B-spline base of degree 1 with an inner node (corresponding to the threshold temperature). In this example, the position of the node is varied and the position of the node that minimizes the mean squared error of the regression is chosen as optimum. The function to be minimized is therefore the mean squared error of the B-spline regression of the power demand on the temperature according to the position of the inner node of the B-Spline base. In the example described here, to optimize this function, the Nelder-Mead method is used. The mathematical formalism to estimate this temperature is the following: Tst_h argmin {11Pt - B (Tbt-heli2} T s th, the Where - Pt is the called power at a time t, - Tst_h the threshold temperature at th optimizing the MSE of the regression between the power demand at time t and the delayed raw temperature Tbt_h, - B (Tbt_h) the raw temperature variable delayed by h hours in the B-Splines database, - the vector of regression parameters, - t E (0, T) index of the data history Once the threshold temperature has been found, the raw temperature variable is converted into a "thresholded" temperature as follows: {Tbt_h - Tst_h, Tbt_h <Tst_h Tct_h - 0, Tbt_h T St_h where Tct_h is the delayed temperature of h hours related to the power called "heating" at a time t Thus, in the example described here, the computer system 100 includes a computer 40 which is configured to model, in a step S5 , the power called Pt to an ins both by a LASSO regression taking into account the following variables: - The last 24 temperatures Tct_h with respect to the instant t. h E [[0,23]] - Tnt the normal temperature at time t Since the reaction of the power demand at the temperature differs from half an hour to another, it is desirable to estimate a LASSO model in no time in a day (ie 48 models and therefore 48 sets of parameters in the half-hour case); the computer 40 according to the present invention is therefore implemented to implement the following algorithm: (2 + h = 23 i = 25 Pt - flOdh - 1 (TC t-hfl dh h + 1 ja.dh h = 0 i = 0/3 dh (r) arg min dh 25 Where - dh corresponds to the "half-hour type" whose power is sought to be modeled at time t with dh E [[1,48]] - ah the constant associated with the model, - pdh the parameters associated with the temperature variables Tct_h, Fh + 1 - fle the parameter associated with the normal temperature, - r the penalization constraint, p dh (T) - the vector of the estimates of the parameters of the model. Penalty constraint r is chosen by cross-validation with K = 10. Once this parameter is fixed, the model parameters are estimated on all available data.
    [0031] To extract the half-hourly heating load curve, apply the model explained above keeping only the Tct_up variables and their associated parameters: Pc = P k 'dh fldh25Tn NO Where - / 3c, is an estimate of the called heating power at time t for the half-hour type dh. It is thus possible to reconstruct the heating load curve Ccj from the overall load curve Cgj (see FIG. 3). Thus, thanks to this modeling, it is possible to calculate an estimate of the heating load curve Ccj from a HIST history of consumption data and meteorological data. This history is then used as a learning history to develop the prediction model of erasable power. The load curve of the erasable power is in the example described here the load curve Ccj relating to heating since it is the only use that one drives. Thus, predicting the load curve of the erasable power is to predict the load curve of the heating power demand. Previously, the heating load curve Ccj was extracted from the overall load curve Cg.
    [0032] Correlatively, it is possible here to extract the heating load curve on the data history. This is made possible by a predictor 50 which is configured to calculate a prediction of an erased power consumption for future erasure in a prediction step S6.
    [0033] Thus, in the example described here, the estimation of the heating load curve on the data history is used as the learning history to establish a forecast model of the heating load curve. In the example described here, the variables retained in this model are as follows: - The half-hourly power of the last 48 half hours available. - The half-hourly power of the same half-hour type 7 days before. - The last 8 three-hour temperatures thresholded from the moment that one seeks to predict. - Indicators of the type of weekday (Saturday, Sunday, Monday, ..., Fees). - The normal temperature at the moment we are trying to predict. As previously for the extraction of the heating load curve, the reaction of the power demand at the temperature differs from half an hour to another. Consequently, the prediction depends on the half-hour type of the instant t + k that one wishes to predict. It is therefore necessary to establish 48 forecast models for a half-hourly step. The mathematical formalism of the prediction model is as follows: Pct + k = f dh Pc Tc Tc L, .L. Tn) + (PCt, '', t-47 + k-336 t + k - - - t + k-45 Vundi f - - 1C11M reed t + k where - Pc, ± k is an estimate of the expected power in t + k where t is the time when the forecast is made and the forecast horizon - fclh is the link function between the predictable variable and the explanatory variables of the forecasting model, with dh half typical time of the moment t + k that one seeks to predict.
    [0034] As mentioned above, there are several methods to solve this problem. We choose a LASSO model; the predictor 50 is thus configured to implement the following mathematical algorithm: (-i dh (r)) arg min 2 + 2 -X, S 2PC t + k çdh 1j where - dh corresponds to the "typical half-hour" whose power is sought to model at time t with dh E [[1.48]] - Pc, ± k is the erasure field that we wish to predict at time t + k - X, represents the matrix of explanatory variables of the prediction model where each of the columns corresponds to each of the variables previously listed above - r the penalization constraint - çdh the vector of the parameters of the model - Î2dh the vector of the estimations of the parameters of the model To estimate the model parameters, the penalization constraint must be chosen: this penalization constraint is selected by cross-validation with K = 10. Once this parameter is fixed, the parameters of the model are estimated on all the available data. estimated model, the formula implemented on the predictor 50 is the following at a time t to obtain the erasable power provided for a horizon k: j3Ct + k = x t2dh The comparative results illustrated in FIG. 4 are satisfactory; this figure shows indeed that the distance between the real erasure and the prediction of the erasure obtained by the model is minimal and allows to have a good accuracy.
    [0035] It is possible to improve the process described above and to make it even less expensive by sampling. This is stratified sounding.
    [0036] Thus, instead of going to all consumers to install a device to collect consumption data, the proposed solution is to conduct a survey. In the example described here, the backup devices are installed only for some consumers and not for all consumers of the erasure portfolio. On this portfolio, descriptive variables explain the heating consumption and therefore the erasure. Thus, for each consumer, the energy operator holds information on the type of housing, the surface of the dwelling, the year of construction of the dwelling, the weather station closest to the customer's place of residence, the regular presence. of a person during the day, the number of people in the dwelling. From these variables providing auxiliary information on the variable of interest (the so-called heating power at a time t), the data collection is done by stratified sampling. The strata consist of so-called homogeneous consumers. In other words, consumers in the same stratum must be as homogeneous as possible. It is therefore planned here to maximize inter-strata variance and to minimize intra-stratum variance. 20 The greater the number of strata, the better the accuracy of the estimator. In the example described here, it is planned to keep a reasonable number of strata in order to have at least 2 clients per strata, which makes it possible to accurately estimate the dispersion within the stratum and in fine to calculate the precision of the variable of interest. Once the strata are defined by cross-modalities by variable, the collection of consumption data in each stratum is done by a simple random survey without discount. This SO lamination makes it possible to significantly reduce the overall cost of the process.
    [0037] Thus, the present invention makes it possible to integrate an erase deposit upstream in order to integrate it into an energy production plan. This allows for example a supplier to predict in the short term the amount of erasable energy on a set of customers (also called erasure deposit).
    [0038] As mentioned above, in the residential domain, the erasure field is explained by various explanatory variables which are notably the rhythm of life, the type of housing, the outside temperature. This outside temperature is the most significant variable, especially with regard to consumption for electric heating.
    [0039] The present invention proposes a mathematical and statistical approach to take into account all of these parameters and to be able to predict with accuracy this deposit. It should be observed that this detailed description relates to a particular embodiment of the present invention, but in no case this description is of any nature limiting to the subject of the invention; on the contrary, its purpose is to remove any imprecision or misinterpretation of the claims that follow.
    权利要求:
    Claims (16)
    [0001]
    REVENDICATIONS1. A method for predicting erased fluid consumption, implemented by computer means, comprising the following steps: a collection (51) of consumption data (D CONS 'iE [1, n]) comprising information relating to a real consumption of fluid of a plurality of consumers (CONS, iE [1, n]) during a learning phase (J), - an aggregation (S3) of the collected consumption data (D CONS,) in groups ( Gj, jE [1, m], m being strictly less than or equal to n) as a function of at least one specific descriptive variable associated with each consumer (CONS) and contained in the consumption data (D CONS), - a determination (S4) from the aggregated consumption data (D CONS 'iE [1, n]) of a global load curve (Cgj) for each group (G) relating to the fluid consumption of each group (G ) during the learning phase (J), - a calculation (S5) of a model of extraction of a load curve (C ci), said heating, relating to the consumption of fluid for heating each of the groups (G) from each global load curve (CO and meteorological data (D METJ) containing at least one information relating to the meteorological conditions for each group (G) during said learning phase (J), and - a prediction (S6) of an erased fluid consumption for each group (G) for an upcoming erase phase (J + 1) according to of each heating load curve (Cci) estimated by the extraction model and a history (HIST) of consumption data.
    [0002]
    2. Method according to claim 1 comprising, prior to the aggregation (S3) consumption data (D CONS), a pretreatment (S2) in which a correction (S2 2) consumption data (D CONS) for at least one consumer (CONS) is performed when consumption data (D CONS) of said at least one consumer (CONS) is missing.
    [0003]
    3. Method according to claim 2, wherein, when, for the same consumer (CONS), consumption data (D CONS) are missing over a period less than or equal to a predetermined threshold period, then the consumption data. missing (D CONS,) are estimated, during the correction (S2 2), by interpolation with the other consumption data collected (D CONS,) for this same consumer (CONS,).
    [0004]
    4. Method according to claim 2 or 3, wherein, when, for the same consumer (CONS), consumption data (D CONS) are missing over a period greater than a predetermined threshold period, then the consumption data. missing (D CONS,) are estimated, during the correction (S2 2), by looking in a history of consumption data for a sequence of consumption data minimizing the distance with the consumption data collected (D CONS,).
    [0005]
    5. Method according to any one of claims 2 to 4, wherein the threshold period determined is a period of 3 hours.
    [0006]
    6. Method according to any one of claims 2 to 5, wherein the fluid consumption data (D CONS) include time information relating to the moment at which the consumption of fluid by the consumer (CONS) has been performed, and wherein the pretreatment (S2) comprises a synchronization (S2 1) of said data when they are out of sync.
    [0007]
    7. The method of claim 6, wherein the synchronization (S2 1) consumption data (D CONS) is performed by interpolation.
    [0008]
    The method according to any of the preceding claims, wherein the meteorological data (D METJ) contains outdoor temperature information for each consumer (CONS) during the learning phase (J), and wherein for each group (q) is calculated an average of the temperatures contained in the meteorological data (D METJ) weighted by the called power of the consumers (CONS) of said group (q).
    [0009]
    A method as claimed in any one of the preceding claims, wherein said at least one descriptive variable is selected from at least one of the following variables: area, type and area of accommodation, number of persons for housing or the heating mode.
    [0010]
    10. Method according to any one of the preceding claims, wherein the calculation (S5) of the extraction model comprises a modeling of a consumption power called for heating by the same group at a time t, by a linear regression. of the LASSO type carried out according to the following formula: (2 + h = 23 fi = 25 Pflod h ja.dh thjah ± ii = 0 -Tn dh tja 25 idh arg min h = 0 1 in which: - the variable dh corresponds to the step half-hourly one of which one tries to model the power at time t with dh iE [1,48]; - P, is the global power called for a group at a moment t; fo dh is the constant associated with the model; dh - ih + g, correspond to the parameters associated with the temperature variables Tct_h; / - 3dh 25 corresponds to the parameter associated with the normal temperature; 25 - 2 is a penalization constraint; and _ ijdh _ ) corresponds to the vector of the parameter estimates the extraction model.
    [0011]
    11. The method of claim 10, wherein the prediction (S6) of the fluid consumption erased at a time t for a forecast horizon k is estimated according to the following formula: xA "in which: - X, represents a matrix of explanatory variables of the prediction model, and dh 1 _ ) corresponds to the vector of the estimates of the parameters of the prediction model.
    [0012]
    12. A method according to any one of the preceding claims, comprising, prior to the collection of consumption data (D CONS), a stratification (SO) of consumers (CONS) during which the inter-strata variance is maximized and Intra-stratum variance is minimized.
    [0013]
    13. Computer program comprising instructions adapted for performing the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 12 when said computer program is executed by at least one processor.
    [0014]
    A computer-readable recording medium on which a computer program is recorded including instructions for performing the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 12.
    [0015]
    A computer system (100) for predicting an erased fluid consumption comprising: - a collection module (10) configured to collect consumption data (D CONS 'iE [1, n]) including information relating to a actual fluid consumption of a plurality of consumers (CONS, iE [1, n]) during a learning phase (J), - a processing circuit (20) configured to aggregate the collected consumption data (D CONS, ) in groups (G ,, jE [1, m], m being strictly less than or equal to n) as a function of at least one specific descriptive variable associated with each consumer (CONS,) and contained in the consumption data (D CONS,), - a processor (30) configured to determine from aggregate consumption data (D CONS,) a global load curve (Cg,) for each group (q), - a calculator (40) configured to compute a model of extraction of a load curve (Cc,), called heating, relative to the a global consumption of fluid for heating each of the groups (G,) from each global load curve (Cg,) and meteorological data (D MET,) containing at least one information relating to the meteorological conditions for each group ( G,) during said learning phase (J), and - a predictor (50) configured to calculate a prediction of an erased fluid consumption for each group (q) during an erasure phase to come (D + 1) ) as a function of each heating load curve estimated by the extraction model and a history (HIST) of consumption data.
    [0016]
    16. System according to claim 15, comprising computer means configured for carrying out the technical steps of the method according to any one of claims 2 to 12.
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    US20160314400A1|2016-10-27|
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    优先权:
    申请号 | 申请日 | 专利标题
    FR1362407A|FR3014613B1|2013-12-11|2013-12-11|PREDICTING ERASED FLUID CONSUMPTION|FR1362407A| FR3014613B1|2013-12-11|2013-12-11|PREDICTING ERASED FLUID CONSUMPTION|
    US15/103,757| US20160314400A1|2013-12-11|2014-12-10|Prediction of a curtailed consumption of fluid|
    EP14825421.2A| EP3080758A1|2013-12-11|2014-12-10|Prediction of a curtailed consumption of fluid|
    PCT/FR2014/053258| WO2015086994A1|2013-12-11|2014-12-10|Prediction of a curtailed consumption of fluid|
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